Ulaanbaatar, the capital city of Mongolia, suffers from extreme winter air pollution, with PM2.5 concentrations exceeding WHO safety limits by more than ten times due to a heavy reliance on raw coal for heating in sprawling “ger” districts. Existing efforts to transition to cleaner fuels face a critical data gap: extreme sub-zero temperatures degrade standard telemetry, causing data drops and noise that undermine the strict carbon data integrity required for Paris Agreement Article 6.2 ITMO transactions. This lack of reliable, audit-ready baseline data currently prevents the bankability of large-scale fuel-switching interventions.

To solve this issue, this project, supported by CTAF under GGGI, introduces a low-power Edge AI gateway integrated with smart heat meters, powered by a dedicated Neural Processing Unit (NPU). Unlike traditional data loggers that rely on unstable cloud networks, the NPU performs localized machine learning inference to filter anomalies, account for weather variables and generate unalterable on-site Baseline Emission Factors (BEF). This hardware acts as a defensive layer for data validation, ensuring robust storage and synchronization even during cellular network failures.  By transitioning from a delayed database setup to real-time NPU-driven inferencing, the project secures a bulletproof, audit-ready data layer that accelerates inter-governmental ITMO transactions.

The technology is expected to deliver significant emissions reductions and health benefits for residents. Additionally, it is expected to establish a bankable “Climate Asset Blueprint” to unlock Article 6.2 carbon financing, while creating high-skilled technical jobs in digital carbon accounting.

Energy, AI, MRV, Clean Heating

The validated NPU-enabled AI-MRV architecture framework directly establishes a replicable “Climate Asset Blueprint”. Once verified across the initial pilot sites, this exact hardware/software telemetry array will be mirrored across the expanded investment pipeline consisting of 70 institutional coal-to-LPG boilers to mitigate 0.12–0.18 MtCO2eq annually and drastically reduce PM2.5 and SO2 levels for 800,000 residents. Furthermore, the NPU Edge framework can be replicated across other high-altitude, low-connectivity Article 6 initiatives managed via GGGI trust funds globally. Ultimately, this verified performance track record builds a reliable pathway to scale up fuel-switching infrastructure across Ulaanbaatar by attracting commercial carbon co-financing and large-scale concessional loans from Multilateral Development Banks.