Myanmar has in recent years begun to transition both politically and economically. Since economic liberalization was initiated in 2011, Myanmar’s economy has grown at an average of 6.5%. However, this growth has relied heavily on natural resources, such as energy, forestry, and agriculture, for its main exports and industries. While in previous decades Myanmar’s low level of industrialization kept carbon emissions relatively low, the country’s economic growth potential represents a carbon time-bomb that will have a considerable impact if development does not proceed sustainably.

Currently, only 28% of the population has access to electricity. Access issues are most severe in rural areas where 84% of households have no electricity connection. In turn, households rely heavily on traditional biomass as their primary source of energy, with most receiving more than 80% of their supply from wood fuel taken from local forests; thus exacerbating deforestation and environmental degradation. Indeed, Myanmar’s forests, which are among its most valuable natural resources, have suffered heavily from logging. Some studies rank Myanmar as the third worst in the world for deforestation, with forest cover shrinking from 58% in 1990 to 24% of total land area.

The first democratic government in 25 years took office in April 2016 and recognizes these challenges. It is seeking ways to put Myanmar on a path that generates strong economic, environmental, and social outcomes. The national Forestry Master Plan aims to reforest land area to 30% by 2030. Further, the new government is rethinking reliance on brown energy sources to meet Myanmar’s growing energy needs, and instead actively promote solar energy, biogas, and mini-hydropower systems along with broader support for rural electrification.

Although the project will be GGGI’s first in Myanmar, the Institute was actively preparing in 2015-16 by conducting a series of scoping missions to engage in bilateral and multi-stakeholder consultations with both Government of Myanmar (GoM) representatives and civil society organizations. In particular, these activities engaged the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environmental Conversation (MoNREC), which formulated a clear request for GGGI to support NDC implementation. While the NDC Myanmar submitted to UNFCCC highlights policy commitments in the sectors of energy and forests, it does not clearly spell out how the GoM will maintain low emissions under the current energy needs scenario, nor does it provide a detailed implementation plan that addresses the cost of investments, a coordination framework, or a monitoring, verification and reporting system.

Unlocking Myanmar’s growth potential through an approach that meets NDC goals and generates strong, sustainable growth will require technical support to conduct careful analysis and develop a sustainable framework calibrated to the country’s unique context.

PROJECT OUTPUTS FOR 2017-18:

• Assessment of the green growth potential of Myanmar is finalized to help inform prioritization of areas for NDC implementation
• Develop an investment need analysis and a monitoring, reporting and verification system for NDC implementation, including poverty reduction and social inclusion outcomes
• Deliver a best practice analysis and 2 capacity building events to share knowledge on NDC implementation

PROJECT OUTCOMES FOR 2017-18:

• Government monitors and reports on NDC implementation to UNFCC using the proposed system and approves the investment need analysis
•  Conduct 13 weeks in-depth training for 24 ECD staff on Climate Change and MRV in collaboration with Australian Volunteer (AVI)

PROJECT OUTCOMES FOR 2018-19:

• Assessment of NDC implementation impacts on gender equality, poverty reduction and social inclusion
• Conduct Energy Sub-sector assessment and report launched in May 2019
•  Conduct 26 hours TOT training for 24 ECD staff on Climate Change and MRV in collaboration with Australian Volunteers Program

PROJECT OUTCOMES FOR 2019-2020:

• Conduct IPPU Sub-sector assessment (consultation workshop June and Aug 2019), analysis being completed
• Conduct AFOLU Sub-sector assessment (consultation workshop June and Aug 2019), analysis being completed
• Continue TOT graining for 24 ECD staff on Climate Change and MRV in collaboration with Australian Volunteers Program
• In partnership with ECD and UNEP, GGGI develops CBIT project proposal and submit to GEF

IMPLEMENTING PARTNERS

•  Environmental Conservation Department
•  United Nations Environment Programme
•  Australian Volunteers Program

The overall outcome of the project is to support the GoM in strengthening its institutional framework for NDC implementation by assessing green growth potential and priorities, and developing necessary tools and capacity. This will be done by delivering the following outputs:

Assessment of the green growth potential of Myanmar is finalized to help inform prioritization of areas for NDC implementation. Based on the request to identify Myanmar’s green growth potential in priority sectors, GGGI will conduct a Green Growth Potential Assessment (GGPA) to diagnose appropriate interventions based on a solid understanding of the national challenges in delivering green growth. The GGPA will engage a broad set of stakeholders to identify key constraints and opportunities to leverage Myanmar’s natural capital and green growth potential. The results of the exercise will help guide ministries to mainstream green growth into development policies, formulate recommendations for pro-poor and inclusive green growth, as well as mobilize financial resources toward green growth.

Investment need analysis and a monitoring, reporting, and verification system for NDC implementation, including poverty reduction and social inclusion outcomes developed. Based on the GoM’s request for GGGI to support NDC implementation and financing, the Institute will establish a monitoring, verification, and reporting (MRV) system to facilitate data collection and report generation requisite for national and international review. To introduce an MRV in Myanmar, GGGI will assess the current institutional capacity and data availability for such a system, build on the existing mechanisms and institutional roles and responsibilities, strengthen capacity to collect and manage data, and support the aggregation of this information into reports and inventories. This exercise will also include the costing the NDC and analyzing its investment requirements in order to assess potential environmental and social risks and set the stage for the development of bankable projects. The MRV will also incorporate poverty reduction, gender, and social inclusion metrics in its design in order to strengthen buy-in for mitigation action among policy makers and their constituencies, showcasing the social impact of mitigation.
Best practice analysis and two capacity building events to share knowledge on NDC implementation delivered. To support GGGI’s technical advisory work a capacity development program will be rolled-out targeting line ministries engaged in NDC implementation and monitoring. The program will strengthen the NDC implementation framework and investment analysis by providing interactive learning sessions on NDC and sharing lessons from international best practices on MRV systems. Peer-to-peer learning opportunities with the countries holding best practices will also be organized in order to transfer the knowledge and skills specifically required to successfully implement NDC.