Project context

Ethiopia is vulnerable to the adverse impacts of climate change and variability due to the unpredictability of climate change, country’s low adaptive capacity and limited livelihood options for most of the population. Most of climate sensitive sectors such as agriculture, water and energy are vulnerable to climate related shocks. Furthermore, Ethiopia is among the fastest growing economies in Africa.

In line with the above issues, the Government of Ethiopia is taking concrete action to better manage adverse impacts and risks of climate change and climate variability. Accordingly, as a recognized leader on low carbon actions in clean power generation and landscape restoration, Ethiopia has made major progress in advancing its climate agenda. Over the past decade, the government has prioritized low-carbon growth, poverty reduction, and climate resilience. In 2011, well before countries undertook obligations to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and enhance climate resilience under the Paris Agreement, Ethiopia released the Climate Resilience Green Economy (CRGE), an ambitious national blueprint towards reducing its GHG emissions by 64% compared to the business-as-usual scenario, by 2030.

GGGI supported the development of the CRGE and its follow up enablers like:

• the establishment of the CRGE facility and its operationalization.
• resource mobilization as well as accreditation to both the Adaptation Fund and Green Climate Fund.
• mainstreaming of the CRGE into Growth and transformation plan (GTP II) which was from 2015-2020.
• the development of different guidelines and tools including the private sector engagement strategy as well as a Measuring Reporting and Verification (MRV) framework.

Overall, the country has implemented a host of significant climate change-linked initiatives with major mitigation and adaptation potential.

Following the call for communicating Intended Nationally determined Contributions prior to Paris COP in 2015, the government of Ethiopia reiterated its commitment for the reduction of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions across sectors by 64% below the ‘business-as-usual’ GHG emissions by 2030.

The commitment transcends the traditional climate-linked sectors and is economy-wide, with all major areas of the economy having engaged in climate change response. This is particularly the case after climate change was mainstreamed into the country’s overarching development planning architecture through the second Growth and Transformation Plan (GTP-II). In effect, Ethiopia has done, and continues to do, a great deal on climate change.

In order to enhance the existing NDC, there is a need to know where the country is in terms of implementation since 2011. In February 2020, an assessment of Ethiopia’s CRGE/NDC implementation progress was completed. The assessment report highlighted the issues across the value chain and the progress in terms of planning, resource mobilization and allocation, implementation and reporting

The Government of Ethiopia (GoE) is preparing its 10-year Perspective Development Plan (started  in March 2020), which considers a strong momentum towards large-scale investments in irrigation agriculture, broad-based rural development, and private sector involvement, along Ethiopia’s vision for green and resilient development. This perspective long-term development plan has six main pillars.

CRGE is one of the six pillars and is also mainstreamed across all pillars.

The Paris Agreement invites Parties to submit their Long Term – Low Emissions Development Strategy (LT-LEDS) by 2020 towards achieving the ambitious commitment by all countries to limit the increase in global average temperature to well below 2°C and to pursue efforts to limit the increase to 1.5°C.

• LT-LEDS is an instrument that illustrates how countries envision to decarbonize their economies in the long run, up to 2050 and beyond, against which shorter-term targets can be set through NDCs and NAPs. In addition, LT-LEDS could be an important step towards the development of NDC roadmaps or action plans that embed climate change into national policymaking processes, operationalize activities to reduce emissions and increase resilience, and help identify projects and financing needs.
• LT-LEDS can also inform country programs, guide pipeline development priorities, and identify transformational catalytic investments. More broadly, LT-LEDS also provide credibility and certainty that the Paris Agreement goals can be achieved and increase transparency and trust among nations as each Party demonstrates they are working towards a low emission and climate-resilient future.

Guided by lessons from past practices in terms of planning (e.g. CRGE which extends till 2030) and implementation (from project into a mainstreamed approach) as well as the call from Paris Agreement, Ethiopia is interested in the development of its long term carbon neutral 2050 strategy.

Objective

Building on the CRGE/NDC Implementation assessment; guided by the 10-years perspective development plan as well as Improving the narrative of the NDC to align with the current 10-years perspective plan and also guided by international experience in NDC enhancement process (using the outcomes of the Paris agreement and the rule book) GGGI will support the Government of Ethiopia (GoE) to develop its carbon neutral green economy 2050 strategy in close coordination and alignment with WRI’s TASCA NCE Ethiopia project.

COVID19 is going to have significant implication in terms of slowing down the double-digit economic growth of the country. Hence, the LEDS will help the country to recover from this shock within a short period of time by creating green jobs and sustaining the development while following a long -term low emission development pathway. Overall, the LEDS will help the GoE to have a long-term vision and not to be distracted by the impact of COVID19, but on the contrary, to incorporate issues of resilience, including climate resilience, in its LT-LEDS.

The specific objective of the proposed work is to support the GoE to develop a concise and strategic LEDS document through a participatory stakeholders’ consultation process describing the pathways to low-carbon and resilient development for Ethiopia starting from the 2010 CRGE baseline and reaching to 2050.

The LEDS will:

• Identify the potential evolution of specific sectors (e.g. power, transport, industry, forestry, etc.) in a Business-As-Usual (BAU) scenario (i.e. in the absence of additional low carbon policies and actions) in close alignment with WRI TASCA NCE Ethiopia project,
• Strengthen/operationalize the MRV of actions using indicators identified during the CRGE Implementation assessment, guided by the indicators identified in the 10-years perspectives plan, while following the IPCC guidelines,
• Identify technically, politically and economically feasible low-carbon development options that have potential to mitigate GHG emissions growth and enhance sinks and country’s resilience in close consultation with stakeholders, EFCCC and building on the work that has been done by WRI,
• Assess potential financing options and instruments of the low carbon options based on the investment requirements,
• Assess the potential for gender equality, women’s empowerment, social inclusion and poverty alleviation in the proposed low-carbon options,
• Propose policy options and an implementation action plan that can help to realize the mitigation potential quantified,
• Propose sectoral and economy-wide targets, staggered by 5-year intervals and an MRV framework which will be aligned to existing government monitoring frameworks,
• Provide advice to the GoE for further adjustment/enhancement of its NDC based on the findings of the analysis and the approved long-term strategy.

Cross-cutting guiding principles of the LEDS are to:

• support country-driven processes and enhance integration of decarbonization and adaptation strategies into national planning,
• promote long-term climate action and align development and climate change objectives,
• enhance efficiency and responsiveness,
• improve coordination and support multi-stakeholder engagement.