Considering its harsh desert climate characterized by extreme heat with increasing cases of more intense natural disasters, the UAE is indeed facing climate risks that if left unattended, can pose development challenges in critical sectors.

Climate projections for the UAE show increased temperature and humidity levels, longer hot and humid seasons, more intense rainfall, higher seawater levels, and increased likelihood and scale of extreme weather events. Going forward, adaptation measures are thus necessary to address the priority risks under an overarching national framework for action on adaptation. As such, the adaptation pillar of the National Climate Change Plan requires the UAE to carry out climate risk assessment and put in place adaptation measures to address the priority risks.

The project aims to enhance the UAE’s long-term resilience to the impacts of climate change through proactive adaptation planning and mainstreaming of climate change adaptation in development policies. It involves developing adaptation action plans at the sectoral level in collaboration with multiple stakeholders and experts.

The project builds on the results of the climate risk assessment carried out by GGGI for the Ministry of Climate Change and Environment (MOCCAE) in collaboration with other ministries such as the Ministry of Energy and Infrastructure and the Ministry of Health and Prevention. The assessment covered four critical sectors – public health, energy, infrastructure, and environment using an evidence-based, participatory, and expert-guided approach to vulnerability analysis. The risk assessment forms the empirical basis for developing the appropriate adaptation measures in the action plan to address the priority risks.

Overall Objective

The project is expected to reduce the UAE’s vulnerability to climate change impacts by strengthening its adaptive capacity on national adaptation planning process. It aims to enhance the UAE’s climate resilience through evidence-based risk assessment, proactive adaptation planning, and mainstreaming of climate change adaptation in development policies. This will be done by engaging multiple stakeholders at the federal and emirate level as well as experts from various sectors, thus enhancing local ownership and facilitating interagency collaboration.

Key challenges being addressed

While resilience has been embedded in the UAE’s history and culture as demonstrated by how the country has overcome the harsh desert environment for centuries, the increasing intensity and frequency of extreme events threatens to undermine development progress in different sectors. Although the UAE is already implementing a wide range of adaptation measures, more innovative ideas and actions are necessary to further transform climate challenges into opportunities. Specifically, significant gaps in the following areas are evident:

(1) lack of an overarching national blueprint for action on adaptation involving multiple stakeholder groups from the public, private, and civil society sectors;

(2) limited awareness and capacity among public and private institutions in integrating climate change adaptation in planning and operations;

(3) lack of institutional coordination (both at the vertical and horizontal level) on adaptation initiatives;

(4) limited research and knowledge sharing platforms on climate change adaptation; and

(5) lack of monitoring and evaluation mechanism to stock take and track progress of relevant programs and projects on climate resilience.

GGGI’s Role

As MOCCAE’s partner, GGGI will provide technical and managerial skills to implement this project. GGGI will support the overall management of the project, ensuring all deliverables will be delivered on time and of high quality.

Theory of Change

The project aligns with SO6 (enhanced adaptation to climate change). It also supports the achievement of relevant SDGs and the Paris Agreement. The policy advisory outputs in the form of national framework for adaptation actions and risk assessments will strengthen whole-of-government planning approach on climate resilience and will guide emirate-level entities to implement climate change adaptation in local communities. It will facilitate institutional collaboration among different sectors and levels of government, as well as the engagement of the private sector and civil society.

Proactive adaptation planning can increase the adaptive capacity of the UAE to cope up with climate impacts and help facilitate the needed investment to finance climate resilience initiatives, thereby helping achieve SO6 (enhanced adaptation to climate change) with positive spillovers effects – either directly or indirectly – covering other strategic outcomes such as: SO1 – reduced GHG emission; SO2 – creation of green jobs; SO3 – increased access to sustainable services; SO4 – improved air quality; and SO5 – adequate supply of ecosystem services.

The project is expected to reduce the UAE’s vulnerability to climate change impacts by strengthening its adaptive capacity on national adaptation planning process. It aims to enhance the UAE’s climate resilience through evidence-based risk assessment, proactive adaptation planning, and mainstreaming of climate change adaptation in development policies. This will be done by engaging multiple stakeholders at the federal and emirate level as well as experts from various sectors, thus enhancing local ownership and facilitating interagency collaboration.

Impact

Enhanced adaptive capacity and resilience to climate impacts through proactive adaptation planning and integration of climate change adaptation in development processes and strategies.

Outcome

Climate change adaptation mainstreamed in key critical sectors in the UAE. Specifically, the project has created a ripple effect in reshaping the UAE’s response to climate change, shifting from a mitigation-centric approach to a more balanced strategy highlighting adaptation through the following milestones:

1. The project paved the way for a more robust and ambitious NDC (approved by the UAE Cabinet and submitted to the UNFCCC on 30 Dec 2020).
2. It has also enabled the government to mainstream adaptation in the national research agenda. The risk assessment has informed the research priorities of the Ministry of Energy and Infrastructure as they launched research projects on adaptation. In addition, MOCCAE launched the UAE Climate Change Research Network in Jan 2021.
3. Building on the success of climate risk assessments for four sectors (public health, energy, infrastructure, and environment), MOCCAE requested GGGI to cover a new sector – climate risk insurance. They plan to apply GGGI’s risk assessment framework to more sectors in the future.
4. The project has also attracted the attention of key universities in the UAE such as the New York University – Abu Dhabi. GGGI is acting as a knowledge broker between the academe and the government to strengthen the science-policy interface for adaptation.
5. GGGI’s adaptation experience has been shared in climate risk assessment for the Arab region. It also contributes to global knowledge sharing on adaptation through the UNFCCC Lima Adaptation Knowledge Initiative (LAKI).

Outputs

1. Framework for adaptation actions developed for the following sectors: public health, energy, infrastructure, environment based on evidence-based risk assessment.
2. Final assessment of risks and opportunities, and action plan synthesis report on climate risk insurance delivered, consolidating the results of all activities including a summary for policymakers.
3. Assessment of the state of environmental goods and services sector conducted for the UAE
4. Climate Adaptation Risk Assessment Phase 1